Considering the opposition of the Spanish state, the official consultation of 9N (November 9th) was difficult, though not impossible, to bring about. It would have involved breaking with the current legality before knowing if the majority of the country was willing to (or willing to negotiate doing so). And, above all, it would have required certain political and financial tools to withstand the pressure from Spain that the Catalan government still does not appear to have in place, in spite of the direct implications (beyond a rhetorical proclamation) of the declaration of sovereignty by Parliament in January 2013.
Once the Catalan government dropped its plans to hold the official 9N , doing nothing wasn’t an option: it would have been tantamount to conceding complete defeat. Therefore, the announcement of a “participatory consultation” or a New 9N (N9N) has been, at first glance, a skillful move and a good media coup. Still, the management of the decision to cancel the official consultation was suboptimal. The announcement of the referendum or consultation of 9N stemmed from a political promise endorsed by voters in the 2012 elections and agreed upon by several political parties. Any change in the plan should have been agreed to multilaterally or, at least, should have been announced without causing the surprise and confusion that we saw a week ago.
In any case, from a substantive point of view, the N9N puts the ball back in the hands of the public (if, in fact, they had ever lost control over it), confirming once again the political dynamic of the past few years: the country sets, for the moment firmly, the terms of the process. The politicians merely advance positions moderately, always trailing public opinion.
This is the political reality of the times in which we live. This must be stressed, first,to remind everyone of the tension, hope and sacrifices with which many citizens are experiencing the process of national transition. Second,to understand why the people, who have already shown what they want in demonstrations and surveys of all kinds, are willing to turn N9N into a political success (a desire I also share): there is no other alternative in front of us but to try to maximize the political gains from the new government proposal. And, finally, to see why the vast majority of people agree that this new participatory milestone should be followed through with an election where everyone may express their opinion in an official manner, through regular political channels, organized by the relevant public authority, without having to rely on any type of volunteerism.
The new consultation of N9N will carry an important symbolic weight. But it will neither close nor culminate anything. The electoral commitments made in November 2012, reaffirmed by the political agreement of December 2013, and ratified by the Law of Consultations and the decree convening the consultation last September, was to consult the citizens of Catalonia about their political future. This commitment is still unfulfilled. The only way to fulfill it --now that the avenue of an official consultation is closed-- is by means of elections that, and here I quote the words of the president of Catalonia from an interview on Sunday, “serve as a referendum”-- that become a referendum.
These elections must be called soon, certainly before the start of the Spanish electoral cycle that begins with local elections in the spring, for three reasons: one, because if they are not called, the parties of the pro-consultation bloc (including Unió and ICV) will have broken their central electoral promise; two, to reestablish the declining credibility of the government; and three, because the calls to maintain political stability until 2016 are, in the face of the Spanish policy of constant attacks, completely empty.
These elections must be held independently of the results of N9N. And regardless of whether or not there is a joint candidature (something that I believe to be secondary), they must be done with political forces that incorporate in their electoral platforms, in a clear way, without euphemisms, their position with regard to Catalan independence once the new Parliament is formed.
Finally, these elections, as indicated by the CATN (Advisory Council for National Transition) in its reports compiled in the White Book for the National Transition, will have to lead to the approval, in the event of a victory for the “Yes-Yes” side, of a solemn declaration of independence. This declaration will result in the implementation of some state structures to bring about independence. And it will require a process of negotiation with Spain (and, if appropriate, with the European Union), to establish the terms of separation (including the distribution of public debt, temporary continuation of fiscal transfers to Spain, and membership of international organizations). This negotiation process will have a life span of approximately one year. At the end of this period, and regardless of the position of the Spanish state, the Parliament will make a final proclamation of independence whereby the public authority will pass solely to the Catalan government, and the only legal code in force will be Catalonia’s (as well as any International Laws recognized internally).
