At present, it appears that the majority will vote "no" in the Scottish referendum. A few days ago ARA published an interesting article by Neal Ascherson ("Scottish independence is inevitable", 17/8/2014). The Scots, not as inclined as we to the "all or nothing" approach, view their referendum as part of an ongoing process that is unstoppable, whatever the result of the vote. In my view, this is the right historical, strategic and tactical view.

In democracy there is an unavoidable phenomenon: eventually, reality prevails. A process that to some certainly seems slow, tedious, and exasperating, will prove to be unstoppable. Radical institutional changes only happen after bloody and often incongruous processes. This has been the reality of internal European borders, which came about as the result of wars and agreements between monarchs. Alsace is a good example: "You were German, but golly -- now you're French!". And vice-versa. A violent transfer of real estate without any real input from local opinion. Terrible. It's also a mistake to consider only the new Balkan states, as their borders are also stained with blood. They do have an exact birthdate. But nobody can put an exact date on the independence of Australia, or Canada. They were British colonies. Then they were territories. Until finally the British crown remains only as a symbolic link.

Spain doesn't carry democratic civilization in its blood. Neither does Catalonia, of course. Nevertheless, since Spain's accession to the European institutions we have tasted the advantages of civilized democratic society. It doesn't appear, then, that there can be any other solution to our problem than reasoned, negotiated behavior. As reasoned and negotiated as it is radically inevitable.

Democracy is now under siege. Mistakes made in the past few years by attempting to introduce democratic systems by force --this was the principal error in the Iraq war-- and an excessive tolerance towards apparent democracies with autocratic leanings --Russia, for example-- have diluted our democratic perception. But there are other reforms that need to be addressed if we want to maintain western democracy in perfect working order. And the most important is the revision of the "one-size-fits-all view of international application of democracy" that has been used up to now. Democracy in the world has advanced country by country.

The crisis of the euro is also a crisis for nation-states when it comes to solving the macro-economic problems that have been accumulating. Regulations regarding financial institutions, immigration policies, strategic policies (energy, sanctions on other countries, etc.) have passed quickly into the hands of the European community. At the same time, specific policy actions need to be applied at a more local level, not only for practical reasons but also for the effectiveness of democratic control. Here we are then, faced with a process that could be slowed down, but which would be extremely difficult to stop completely: the transition from borders drawn with blood to those defined by democratic reason. And the corresponding question of the effectiveness of a different way of governing.

My misgivings about the success of the current independence process in Catalonia do not imply disagreement with the final objective. I maintain that if anyone causes this process --brilliant at the start, without doubt-- to fail, it will be our political class. It is thin, and as such stingy and ungenerous. Unavoidable: it is genuinely Iberian, the result of the regime established during the Transition. And it has created its own worst problems by not wanting to regenerate itself during the past thirty years-- and we are seeing the consequences now. The level of uncertainty regarding what could happen is very, very high.

The reality that will come out of 9 November shouldn't make us lose our nerve --the perspective that Mr. Ascherson laid out so well in his article. A movement has started that may be slow but cannot be postponed --the alternative is the breakdown of our continent's democratic system--. Some countries will solve these problems by giving more and more power to their national minorities, until they reach the status of Australia or Canada. Without ceremonies or stridencies, simply as a natural act of evolution. Others will attempt to maintain the structure of their nation-states by withdrawing devolved powers --this is the case in Spain. Although they are taking different paths, Scotland and Catalonia are the first in presenting this important question to Europe. There will be others. Whatever happens in the short term, this is an unstoppable process that Europe will have to deal with. This much is clear.